As we look ahead to the forecast for 2024-2026, several key factors are expected to influence the Florida housing market. Recent reports indicate that while the market will likely continue its positive trend, the pace of growth may slow. Over the past five years, home values in Florida have risen by approximately 80%, and this upward trajectory is projected to persist.
Market Trends
In the first quarter of 2024, the market showed signs of adjustment. There was an increase in new listings and for-sale inventory despite high mortgage rates exceeding 6%. This suggests that the market is adapting to the economic climate, with sellers and buyers recalibrating their strategies in light of higher rates.
- Median Sales Prices: The median sales price for single-family existing homes reached $415,000, marking a 3.8% increase from the previous year. Condo-townhouse units also saw a rise, with a median price of $325,500, reflecting a 2.8% year-over-year increase.
- Home Prices: Despite the adjustment, home prices have not plummeted. The median sales price for single-family existing homes continues to rise, reaching a new high in 2024. Condominiums and townhouses exhibit a similar trend, indicating steady appreciation in property values.
Demographic Trends
Economic factors are not the sole determinants of the housing market’s health. Florida’s population growth, driven by migration and the state’s attractive lifestyle offerings, continues to fuel demand for housing. This demographic trend strongly counterbalances economic pressures and supports the market’s resilience.
- Population Growth: From 2010 to 2022, Florida’s population increased for 12 consecutive years, averaging a 1.4% growth per year. In 2022, the population grew by 1.9%, and in 2023, it increased by 1.6%. As of April 1, 2023, Florida’s population was estimated at 22,634,867, a 5.1% increase from the 2020 census.
Mapping Out The Future
Some predictions suggest price declines of 10% to 15% in certain markets, but these are expected to be short-lived. Analysts anticipate a rebound in prices starting in 2024, with a return to moderate, sustainable price appreciation of 3% to 5% annually from 2024 to 2028.
Takeaway
While the Florida housing market may experience fluctuations and potential stabilization in growth rates, a crash seems unlikely in the next two years. The combination of economic fundamentals, population growth, and the state’s inherent appeal suggests a market that will continue to attract interest and investment. For those considering entering the Florida real estate market, staying informed and vigilant about market trends will be key to making sound decisions.
